Evolution of China's Nuclear Strategy: Lessons for Pakistan

Abstract

Asia is undergoing rapid transformation due to asymmetric doctrines and modernisation efforts. China has historically maintained a minimum deterrence and a strict No-First-Use policy, focusing on survivability and assured retaliation rather than numerical parity. Under Xi's leadership, China's nuclear modernisation efforts have sparked debate over whether this modernisation represents a deviation from minimum deterrence or a reinforcement of assured retaliation. This study addresses this question by using Deterrence theory to conduct a comparative analysis of China and Pakistan's nuclear doctrines under three distinct paradigms: minimum deterrence, assured retaliation, and escalation control. The analysis finds that while China’s modernisation remains primarily oriented toward survival, Pakistan's reliance on tactical nuclear weapons risks instability. The study suggests that China's survivability-focused model offers conditional lessons in restraint, credibility, and sustainable modernization.